Rising US corporate default rates during a tightening monetary policy cycle

In this study, we mainly focus on the refinancing issues that US [non-financial] companies will face within the next five years as a lot of corporations are trading at a distressed price (or yield) due to the lack of global growth and low commodity prices. In the first session, we review the US credit market structure. Then, the second session introduces a two-state Markov switching model (Hamilton, 1989), followed by a presentation of the paper Corporate bond default risk: a 150-year perspective (Giesecke & al., 2011), a study that uses a set of macroeconomic and financial variables to forecast default rates in the US. In the third Section, we comment the potential change in the explanatory variables since 2009 and we discuss a solution to avoid a new clustered default event over the next five years.

Link ==> Studies on Corporate Defaults

Studies on Gold and its relationship with other financial variables

One topic that has been making the headlines over the past couple of years is the central banks’ next step: helicopter money. As the effectiveness of monetary policy has decreased drastically since 2008, a new response to stimulate the developed nations’ economy and generate some inflation in order to deflate their debt would be to transfer money directly to the nation’s citizens. This money, as a contrary to Quantitative Easing or the central banks’ refinancing operations, will never be reimbursed. Therefore, an asset that reacted to more easing last year was Gold, which many academics and practitioners have called the ‘currency of the last resort’.

This study investigates the long-run relationship between gold and a complex of financial variables based on daily data from January 1990 to June 2016, then use this relationship as a fair value and see what sort of interpretation we can do with the results.

Link ==> cointegration-gold

Cointegration in Forex Pairs Trading

Forex pairs trading strategy that implements cointegration is a sort of convergence trading strategy based on statistical arbitrage using a mean-reversion logic. This strategy was first introduced by Morgan Stanley in the 1980s using stock pairs, but traders found that it could be used in FX trading as well.

It has been described as a profitable strategy, so the goal of this research (click link below) is to review the cointegration in the FX market using three different approaches – Engle-Granger, Johansen test and the Hurst exponent – with some application in Eviews and Bloomberg.

Link ==> cointegration-and-fx-trading